Voter turnout will swing the 2024 election. (Darren Stewart/Gallo Images)
Depending on voter turnout, we may find that news of the death of South Africa’s larger political parties have been greatly exaggerated by the myriad of mystical polls preceding the election, writes Natasha Marrian.
If voter turnout is factored into the latest poll assessing the mood of the electorate, the ANC may well be on its way to a clear majority – or at least extremely close to one.
Polling ahead of the 29 May general election has left many academics and political analysts aghast. To a large extent, the surveys appear more mystical than scientific. This is because many reputable polling companies sidestep one crucial element: modelling for voter turnout.
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